Blog Master G

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Polls Lie

Wednesday, September 1st, 2004 · 1 Comment

Good news from‘s latest email:

    Here’s why the hype that Bush is winning doesn’t stand up to scrutiny:

    * Nation-wide polls don’t matter. This election will be decided in the 20 or so states that aren’t firmly in Bush’s camp. So while most national polls–which include voters in Texas and California–show a dead heat between Bush and Kerry, polls of the so-called “battleground states” tell a different story. A bipartisan poll from NPR1 has Kerry leading 52-43% in these states, and Fox News2 reports a 47-37% Kerry lead there.

    * Historically speaking, Bush is in a very weak position. Most experts agree that when a president is seeking re-election, most voters first decide whether he deserves re-election, and then look at the challenger. And most voters aren’t liking what they see: Bush’s approval rating is very low for an incumbent. Even more importantly, in some recent polls a large portion of voters say the country is on the wrong track, a benchmark that is extremely tough to recover from. Bush is not where he needs to be, and even a significant bounce won’t put him there.

    * In the swing states, the name of the game is turnout. There are literally millions of people who prefer Kerry to Bush but who are unlikely to vote at all. In fact, there are far more of these folks than there are “swing voters” who haven’t made up their minds yet. Experts on both sides agree that the winner on November 2 will be the candidate who gets his base out in the places where it matters. And it’s pretty straightforward to get their attention: we’ll call them on the phone, knock on their doors, and invite them to neighborhood house parties. We’ll listen to their concerns and talk to them about both candidates’ positions on the issues. And we’ll remind them repeatedly to show up on Election Day.

    We’ve now got 60 paid organizers on this campaign, by next week we’ll have more than 100, and two weeks from tomorrow we’ll have 400 more. But our ultimate success depends on you: talking to millions of voters takes tens of thousands of volunteers, and we’re counting on you to be among them.

    Are you ready? Click here:

(Thanks, Glenn, for suggesting I blog that.)

I also just started listening to Air America Radio today. Great stuff. They’re putting some RNC delegates on the spot on floor of MSG, and, of course, the delegates won’t answer their questions (such as a delegate who criticized Clinton’s affair and wouldn’t tell them how many times he’s been married).

Go listen live.

(Thanks, Ian, for reminding me to listen, something I’ve been meaning to do.)

Tags: politics

1 response so far ↓

  • 1 ian // Sep 1, 2004 at 9:56 pm

    I think the only thing that can bring out the maybevoters is a concerted program of behaviour modification. They need to be personally addressed and impressed upon. They need to understand that their way of life is at stake and that inaction equals negligence. It is antipatriotic. It is bad for health. Not voting will make you impotent.

    A torrent of emails addressed to them with hard-hitting, bite-sized nuggets. Phone calls. Being cornered by the water cooler. Bribery. Shame. Whatever it takes to get these non-doers to take 1 hour to save the world.