Primary election candidates with scant opposition rarely invest heavily in an early advertising blitz; they generally husband their strength for the big push in the final eight weeks of the general election.

But two recent statewide polls -- one by the Public Policy Institute of California and the other by the Los Angeles Times -- contained disturbing news for Lungren. Both showed a major shift of Republican voters -- about one in six of the Republican voters surveyed -- to Democrat Al Checchi, who has spent more than $20 million of his own money on television ads since November.

By one estimate, Checchi, the former cochairman of Northwest Airlines, is worth some $850 million. He has shown no hesitation in spending whatever it takes to win the election, and he is all but certain to spend at least another $10 million before June 2. Currently, he is spending between $1 million and $1.5 million a week.

Another wealthy Democrat, three-term Congresswoman Jane Harman, also is spending heavily, about $500,000 a week. She and Checchi are in a virtual tie for first place among Democrats, with Lt. Gov. Gray Davis, a veteran politician, trailing in third.

In a traditional primary, the shift of strength among candidates of one party might not be critical to a rival in the opposing party. Indeed, by conventional wisdom, a bloody intraparty primary contest often benefits the rival. But this year, California has an "open" or "blanket" primary, allowing voters to cast ballots for any candidate they choose, regardless of party affiliation. That means that all the candidates are battling for support from the same pool of voters.

The Republican support for Checchi raises difficult questions for Lungren. Will those voters stay with Checchi in the general election? What is it Republicans see in Checchi that they don't see in their own candidate? Does the shift reflect an inherent weakness in the Lungren campaign? If the voter turnout is low on June 2, and this is the track record for California primaries in nonpresidential elections, does this help Lungren or hurt him? Low turnout elections typically favor Republicans, but while that has been in the case in party primaries, will it still hold true in an open election?

Before the election cycle began, political observers assumed there would be a crossover vote, but it was thought that Democrats would be hurt more than Republicans. Thus far, the opposite has been true.

Lungren also faces a simple dollars-and-cents issue. Unlike Checchi or Harman, Lungren must raise funds from the party faithful. Each dime he spends in the primary is money lost in the all-critical general election. Lungren is no slouch as a fund-raiser, but will he be able to match Checchi, let alone Harman? Lungren's strategists acknowledge that their candidate cannot match Checchi dollar for dollar; few candidates could.

One jokingly noted that Lungren would have to win the lottery to meet Checchi's level of spending.

That may not be a joke after all.

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