For California Republicans, a Lungren victory would be doubly sweet. They would continue their 16-year lock on the state's highest office, and they would be able to block any reapportionment plans drawn up by the Democrat-controlled Legislature. Reapportionment, the once-a-decade redrawing of political boundaries to conform with the census, is perhaps the single most partisan activity of lawmakers because it pits legislator against legislator in a fight for survival. Not surprisingly, complex redistricting sparks little real interest among the public.

Moreover, Republicans nationally view Lungren as a rising star. His election as governor of California automatically positions him as a serious presidential or vice presidential contender.

On the Democratic side, there is disarray.

On paper, the strongest candidate is Lt. Gov. Gray Davis, a wily, fierce campaigner and a capable fund-raiser who has thus far put together a $3.5 million war chest. But Davis has a major negative: He once served as former Gov. Jerry Brown's chief of staff and virtually ruled the state in Brown's many absences. Although that occurred nearly two decades ago, Davis is linked to the still unpopular Brown in the public's perception. He has not advanced significantly in the polls, and many political pros -- even in his own party -- believe it would take nothing short of a miracle for him to beat Lungren.

Then there is Al Checchi, the former co-chairman of Northwest Airlines who is reportedly worth $550 million. Checchi is attractive and capable of bankrolling his campaign with ease, but he has little or no grass-roots support and is largely unknown to the public. Within the Capitol, Democrats view Checchi with deep suspicion: He is not part of the party's machinery and makes little effort to forge alliances. One theory among Democrats -- not widely accepted -- is that their only hope is to unify in the Checchi camp, throw their support to him and use his money in a no-holds-barred campaign against Lungren.

Finally, there is Leon Panetta, President Clinton's former chief of staff. But Panetta, a man with a sterling personal reputation, has been hurt in a number of ways. He is linked, however indirectly, to the scandals that have engulfed his former boss, particularly the Democrats' foreign fund-raising woes and the still-developing scandal surrounding Clinton's relationship with former White House intern Monica Lewinsky.

Feinstein's delay in announcing her decision crippled Panetta, because it prevented him from building, early on, an effective fund-raising machine. He is expected to announce this week whether he will seek the governorship, but it may be too late. The critical issue for Panetta is money: Can he really raise the $15 million or $20 million needed to run a major campaign between now and November? Probably not.

As one GOP strategist put it: "We haven't uncorked the victory champagne yet, but the bottle is on ice."

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