In February, Harman didn't even register as a blip in the polls. The race then was a two-way fight between Gray Davis and Al Checchi, with Davis ahead and Checchi gaining.

Now, a month later, Harman, with 17 percentage points, is at least even with Checchi, who has 15 points, and appears to be moving ahead. Davis is in a clear third place and appears to be slipping.

Since the Field Poll's margin of error is plus or minus 3.8 percent, Harman is not the clear frontrunner, as she was described in numerous media reports. A cardinal error in interpreting polls is to reach a conclusion based on a number that is within the margin of error.

But the poll gives a dramatic indication of the momentum of her campaign, which has been based almost entirely on television advertising financed by her personal fortune.

Her surge, if it is not a fluke, spells big trouble for both Davis and Checchi.

For Davis, the seasoned pro with statewide name recognition, it means that voters are not giving great weight to political experience. This hurts Davis because the core of his campaign is his political resume -- former chief of staff to then-Gov. Jerry Brown, two terms in the Assembly, two terms as state controller and a term as lieutenant governor.

For Checchi, it means that all his spending -- an estimated $12 million since November -- has not proven decisive. With no political experience and no broad base of support from within the party, Checchi hopes to bridge that gap with his money. But thus far, that hasn't happened and the role of clear frontrunner eludes him.

As a woman, a moderate on social issues and a fiscal conservative, Harman appears to be more acceptable to Democrats than Checchi, who has no political track record and whose corporate image is anathema to the left and organized-labor wings of the party.

Moreover, there is some truth to the perception of Harman as a Dianne Feinstein surrogate. Harman's top campaign strategists are close Feinstein associates. She and Feinstein are similar philosophically, both are married to wealthy entrepreneurs and both are telegenic -- a critical characteristic in a state where television advertising consumes 90 percent of a candidate's spending and defines the campaign.

On the Republican side, presumptive nominee Dan Lungren clearly views Harman's rise with concern. First, his anti-abortion stance may hurt him with women, who now comprise about 57 percent of the electorate. Second, his heaviest political ammunition -- targeting Davis as a clone of Jerry Brown -- obviously is useless against Harman. Third, Harman's mixture of fiscal conservatism and social moderacy appears to resonate with voters, many of whom may view Lungren as too conservative and out of step with California.

It's too early to assess Harman's long-term position; more polling will be done, including the final survey the week before the June 2 primary.

But the message of Harman's rise is clear: to win the governorship, Davis, Checchi and Lungren will have to find some way of stopping her.

All '98 publications are available online. Place your SECURE online order today!
http://www.capenq.com/order

*** New Products ***

We've added to our collection of publications three new products for '98: the California District Zip Code Directory, the California District Wall Map, and Mailing Labels & Disks for all your mailing needs. Find these new products and more through our Web site.
http://www.capenq.com/brochure

*** 1997 Directory Prices Reduced ***

While our '98 directories are ready for order, the costs of three of our '97 directories, the Pocket Directory of the California Legislature, the U.S. Congress Directory, and the State Agency Directory, have been significantly reduced. Find more information through our Web site.
http://www.capenq.com/order