Nowhere is that more true than in California's budget.

Each January, the governor of California proposes a state budget for the fiscal year that begins the following July 1. The 3-inch-thick budget, usually released in conjunction with the governor's State of the State speech, is really a sort of wish list. It describes the governor's goals and political philosophy, and the prediction of revenues, and sets the stage for months of debate on state spending and exhaustive scrutiny by a myriad of legislative subcommittees. The media cover the budget introduction as a major event. Therefore, it must be important -- right?

Wrong.

The REAL budget proposal is offered by the governor months later in May, six weeks before the end of the fiscal year. It's called the "May Revise" by the Capitol cognoscenti, and it reflects the real condition of the state's finances and its ability to pay for programs. That's because by May the administration has a far better idea of just how much money is available. Sometimes, the May Revise differs dramatically from the budget as proposed in January; sometimes, it doesn't. But, for better or worse, the real spending plan that potentially affects 33 million Californians is the document that is unveiled by mid-May, and it serves as the framework for the fiscal battles in the Senate and Assembly.

This week, the May Revise will be released. Two things are certain. Revenues will be up dramatically -- perhaps by $4 billion -- because the economy is in wonderful condition. And politically popular cuts will be announced, such as hundreds of millions of dollars worth of vehicle license fees. The total budget is expected to reach nearly $74 billion, not including the federal "pass-through" funds that the state spends.

In recent years, the annual budget dance has been accompanied by a series of carefully scripted leaks by the administration as it seeks to build exposure and political support for its programs. This year is no different, as administration officials privately briefed reporters on upcoming education spending; more leaks are expected on fees, child health initiatives and other programs in advance of Thursday's formal unveiling.

One thing to watch: In all the rhetoric over education, see if the governor provides one penny more than he is required to do by the voter-approved law, Proposition 98, that sets guarantees for school funding.

Moreover, this is an election year and this year's budget is Republican Gov. Pete Wilson's eighth and final budget as governor. That means that partisan politics, always part of the state's spending plan, will be a big factor in this document. Republicans, noting the example of Virginia, are demanding an end to the fees. In car-happy California, which has a fifth of the nation's cars and more roads than any other state, such a move is certain to be wildly popular.

Republicans will point to the fee elimination in their campaign literature this year, and Wilson will be sure to refer to it when he runs for president in 2000.

Nearly 20 years ago, a veteran journalist told a cub reporter that to understand Sacramento you have to understand the budget, for the budget drives much of the Capitol's politics.

That was true then. It's even truer now.

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