May 25, 1998 CAPITOL ACTION WEEKLY Volume 1, Number 46


A free weekly newsletter brought to you by Capitol Enquiry, Inc.
Edited by Gabe Anderson
Capitol Reports by Capitol Action Staff

Table of Contents
* Welcome
* Capitol Action
* News & Promotions


Welcome

Welcome to the 46th issue of Capitol Action Weekly, Capitol Enquiry's FREE weekly newsletter. We thank you for subscribing and hope you are enjoying this newsletter. Please remember that we do appreciate feedback. As always, you can find past issues of the newsletter at http://www.capenq.com/newsletter. If you believe this newsletter may be of interest to someone you know, please do not hesitate to forward it along.


Capitol Action

SACRAMENTO, Calif -- A deeply held belief of many professional political consultants is that while negative political ads may be deplored by the public, they are effective.

This year's governor's race, astonishing in so many other ways, has provided a remarkable paradox: It has proven that axiom to be flat wrong and, at the same time, shown it to be absolutely true.

No wonder serious political observers often wind up in therapy.

Consider the case of Al Checchi, a near billionaire, who now trails decisively in the race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Until the last few weeks, Checchi led the field. His image was everywhere, on broadcast and cable television. He has spent an estimated $30 million on slick television advertising since November, and in the early stages the advertising was entirely positive -- image ads extolling his virtues or offering his generalized solutions to generalized problems.

But when rival Democrat Jane Harman rose in the polls to a near tie, frontrunner Checchi did something he promised he wouldn't do -- he "went negative." That means he launched a negative advertising campaign directed at Harman.

That effort seemed to thwart Harman, who didn't respond with negative ads of her own.

But instead of helping Checchi, the principal beneficiary of Checchi's negative blitz was the third Democrat in the race, Lt. Gov. Gray Davis.

And when Davis climbed in the polls, Checchi launched another negative broadside, this time aimed at Davis.

And that's when the consultants' old axiom was proven wrong -- Checchi's negative ads failed miserably.

The polls, particularly the latest Los Angeles Times poll on the governor's race, show that voters are fed up with Checchi's negative ads. Indeed, those ads have driven voters out of Checchi's camp into the waiting arms of Davis, who now leads Checchi by nearly a 3-to-1 ratio.

Remember, Davis is the candidate who was viewed for months as the also-ran and who lagged the field in repeated surveys. But the Times' survey showed Davis with 28 percentage points and Checchi with 10 points. Harman had 16.

But unlike Harman, Davis responded immediately with his own negative ads -- it's clear he had them prepared and ready to go -- after Checchi launched his blitz.

And that's when the consultants' old axiom was proven absolutely true: Davis moved from last to a commanding lead through negative advertising, his own plus Checchi's, which enabled him to reap the benefits of the anti-Checchi backlash.

With the election little more than a week away, the lead in this horse race could change again. But it is unlikely, for it is during the final stretch, after all the months of frenzied campaigning, that voters actually begin to focus on the campaigns and their candidates.

What the polls seem to be saying is that Checchi's lead appeared to depend in part on voters' disinterest, but when people began paying attention to the race, Davis quickly began to build support.

In other words, the negative ads failed for Checchi and worked for Davis.

How come?


News & Promotions

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