In the space of four weeks, front-runners have traded places twice. Seasoned political observers -- particularly print reporters -- view themselves as thinkers of deep thoughts and acute analysts of policy, and often see campaigns as clashes of ideology.

But in reality, a campaign is a horse race, pure and simple. And Californians, if the polls are any measure, are confused by this horse race: Who is leading in the final stretch?

The latest statewide Field Poll puts Lt. Gray Davis, the poorest Democratic candidate of the bunch who only began his television campaign two weeks ago, at the head of the pack, replacing Rep. Jane Harman, who now trails in the three-candidate field of Davis, Al Checchi and Harman.

Harman, a three-term member of Congress in a Los Angeles-area district, herself emerged from obscurity after a $4 million advertising campaign. But she was knocked down after Checchi, a near-billionaire with virtually unlimited personal resources, focused a negative advertising campaign on her absenteeism in Congress.

Now, with Davis at the forefront, Checchi -- the candidate who said earlier in the campaign that he would never "go negative" -- has gone negative. He has launched a negative advertising campaign aimed at Davis, suggesting improprieties while Davis was a member of the board of the state employees' retirement board.

Davis, meanwhile, has responded in kind, and immediately. Unlike Harman, whose failure to respond to Checchi likely cost her support, Davis blasted back at Checchi, with ads questioning his role in corporate takeovers. Presumably, the next round of statewide polls to be released by mid-month will give some indication as to how all this advertising shakes out.

One wonders how potential voters view the 1998 gubernatorial campaign, which thus far has been conducted completely on television. Perhaps one in a thousand California voters has seen any of these candidates in the flesh; even fewer have observed them responding spontaneously to questioning.

Ironically, the only confrontation between the three Democrats and the most significant event of the Democratic primary, a May 13 debate sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, is not expected to be televised. That's because political debates usually draw poor viewership and because May 13 is right in the middle of the "sweeps" period, when television stations battle for the crucial ratings that determine how much they can charge for advertising.

The money involved in the Democratic primary is astronomical. Weeks ago, the contest broke spending records, mostly because of Checchi. Thus far Checchi has spent an estimated $25 million, and probably closer to $30 million; the final figures won't be in until after June 2.

Meanwhile, Harman has probably spent about $8 million and likely will spend $1 million a week until election day. Davis, likewise, will spend $800,000 to $1 million, and he will have spent perhaps $9 million or more by June 2.

The bottom line: The June 2 primary, for Democrats alone, will cost an astounding $50 million-plus for three contenders. This is political spending on a scale for a state race never seen before in the nation, let alone California.

Is it worth it?

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